July, 8, 2025
by the InGenius team
- Ghana’s cocoa farmers expect a bumper harvest for the 2025/2026 season, thanks to better weather and healthier crops.
- Persistent challenges remain, including delayed input supplies, pest threats, and unpredictable rainfall.
- COCOBOD plans to fulfill 100,000 tons of previously deferred contracts, aiming to restore confidence in Ghana’s cocoa sector.
- Despite optimism, Ghana’s cocoa output for 2024/2025 is projected to fall short, highlighting ongoing sector volatility.
- The global cocoa market is closely watching Ghana, as its harvest will influence commodity prices and supply chains worldwide.
Persistent Challenges: Inputs, Pests, and Weather
Still, hope comes with some serious worries. Delays in getting fungicides and pesticides from Ghana’s Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) could put the whole harvest at risk, especially if pests strike at the worst moment. Farmers warn that without these crucial treatments on time, entire crops could be wiped out in just days. On top of that, too much rain is causing headaches, as heavy downpours can damage pods and shrink yields. The message is clear: without timely support and balanced weather, this promising season could quickly take a turn for the worse.
COCOBOD’s Moves to Restore Confidence
After a tough 2023/2024 harvest, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, is stepping up. They’ve pledged to deliver 100,000 tons of cocoa contracts delayed by last season’s setbacks. Their plan includes handing out better seeds, fixing up disease-hit farms, and cracking down on illegal exports. The mission? Boost production, steady the market, and win back the confidence of buyers worldwide.
Output Shortfalls and the Global Cocoa Deficit
Despite these efforts, Ghana is expected to fall short of its 2024/2025 output target, with production projected at just 590,000 tons, one of the lowest in recent history. Both Ghana and neighbouring Ivory Coast, which together supply over 60% of the world’s cocoa, are battling their worst harvests in decades. This ongoing supply squeeze has led to a fourth consecutive global cocoa deficit, keeping markets on edge and prices high.
Why Procurement and Finance Leaders Should Care
For procurement and finance leaders, Ghana’s cocoa outlook isn’t just local news - it’s a global market signal. A strong harvest could ease supply strains and steady prices, but risks remain, meaning volatility is here to stay. Food, beverage, and confectionery companies need to watch Ghana’s progress and COCOBOD’s moves closely to make smarter sourcing choices and keep supply chain risks in check.
Ghana’s cocoa outlook for 2025/2026 is a story of optimism tempered by caution. While farmers are hopeful for a bumper crop, challenges on the ground and shifting policies mean uncertainty remains. For the global commodity market, Ghana’s harvest will be a key factor in determining cocoa prices, supply chain stability, and procurement strategies in the year ahead. As the world waits for the first pods of the new season, all eyes are on Ghana, and the ripple effects will be felt far beyond its borders.
Nos produits incluent Prévisionniste IG pour des prévisions de marché précises et Portefeuille IG pour des stratégies de placement plus intelligentes.
