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10th of September, 2025
by the Ingenius Team
- Russia’s 86M-ton crop secures its position as the world’s dominant wheat exporter.
- U.S. futures slipped to new 2025 lows, offering buyers relief but raising sustainability questions.
- UK millers saw only modest import savings as currency gains barely offset global price shifts.
- U.S. food use of wheat is edging lower, signaling softer domestic demand.
- Global stocks are tighter year-on-year but remain safely within normal ranges.
- U.S. wheat harvest is smaller, but exports are climbing, leaving the domestic supply tighter.
North American Production: Supply Tightens as Exports Grow
U.S. wheat production for 2025/26 is estimated at 1,927 million bushels, about 2% below last year. While that trims domestic supply, export demand is offsetting the shortfall. USDA recently lifted shipment forecasts to 875 million bushels, up 25 million since July, as hard red winter wheat continues to sell competitively overseas. For procurement leaders, this mix of tighter supply and strong exports means markets will remain sensitive to small shifts in demand.
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Strategic Procurement and Global Dynamics
Global dynamics are being shaped not only by geopolitics but also by procurement decisions. Jordan, for example, shifted its summer wheat tender schedule after locking in favorable prices earlier. The larger story, however, is Russia’s revised harvest, now pegged at 86 million tons by IKAR, making it the world’s largest and most aggressive exporter. Ukraine’s production is stable, and while global shipping schedules remain complex, supply chain disruptions are not intensifying. For buyers, this underscores the value of diversifying suppliers and considering forward contracts to reduce exposure to volatility.
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Britain’s Wheat Market: Quality Steady, Costs Shift Slightly
In the UK, wheat quality remains strong, with protein levels averaging around 13.5%. Weather hiccups created some regional variation, but overall harvest results are solid. Recent shifts in the British Pound have slightly eased import costs for millers buying dollar-priced wheat, though the benefit has been modest. UK prices remain stable, while global benchmarks have drifted lower, helping buyers manage procurement costs heading into autumn planting.
Price Trends and Volatility
U.S. wheat futures and local farm prices have softened into September. The season-average farm price fell by $0.10 per bushel, with some contracts touching new calendar-year lows. For procurement and finance leaders, this creates opportunities to rethink inventory strategies, review hedging exposure, and take advantage of lower spot prices while keeping an eye on global shifts.
Strategic Risk Management: A Forward-Looking Stance
Economic uncertainty, shifts in global demand, and Russia’s dominant harvest are reshaping risk profiles. Experts advise procurement teams to remain flexible by spreading exposure across grain futures, maintaining diversified supplier bases, and keeping cash reserves available. The emphasis is on resilience—securing supply while managing costs in a market where volatility has eased but not disappeared.
Final Word: Why It Matters
September 2025 brings a wheat market defined by slightly tighter U.S. supply, easing futures prices, and strong global harvests. Inventories are tightening compared to last year but remain comfortably within normal ranges. For procurement and finance leaders, the key is agility: balancing lower prices with strong Russian competition and steady global demand. By diversifying strategies and staying proactive, companies can keep costs under control and maintain resilient supply chains in the months ahead.
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